KABUL, AFGHANISTAN – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the hottest year since records began is almost certain to occur within the next five years as global temperatures continue to rise.
In a new report released on Thursday, the UN agency said there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
The WMO also reported a 75% probability that the average global temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists consider this threshold a critical tipping point that could lead to more intense and frequent heatwaves, storms, floods, and droughts.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.
Under the Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries committed to limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, scientists have repeatedly warned that the target is becoming increasingly difficult to meet, even though single-year exceedances do not formally breach the long-term goal.
The report highlights particularly rapid warming in the Arctic, predicting temperatures 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters. This would mean the Arctic is warming more than three and a half times faster than the global average, accelerating ice melt and sea level rise.
It also forecasts higher-than-average rainfall in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while drier conditions and increased drought risk are expected across the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.
The global warning comes as Afghanistan continues to suffer from worsening climate conditions. Prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, and erratic weather patterns have devastated crops, reduced water availability, and worsened food insecurity in the country.
The United Nations has ranked Afghanistan among the ten nation’s most vulnerable to climate change, even though the country contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions.
Aid agencies and the UN have repeatedly called for greater international support for climate adaptation efforts in Afghanistan, warning that the combination of conflict, poverty, and environmental degradation is putting millions of lives at risk.
