KABUL, AFGHANISTAN – Afghanistan’s remaining opium stockpiles are likely to last until the end of 2026, despite a 95% decline in production after the Taliban banned poppy cultivation, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said in its World Drug Report 2026.
The report, released on Friday, states that Afghanistan, which accounted for about 80% of global illicit opium production until 2022, has seen its output plummet since the enforcement of the ban, now entering its fourth year.
“Best estimates, calculated on the basis of pre-ban levels of consumption of Afghan opiates, suggest that stocks of opium in Afghanistan could last until the end of 2026,” the UNODC report says.
According to the report, land under poppy cultivation in Afghanistan declined from 232,000 hectares in 2022 to 10,200 hectares in 2025, while annual opium production dropped from 6,200 tons to just 296 tons.
“Heroin markets appear to show some signs of decreasing availability and use,” the report said, citing shrinking seizures, falling purity, and rising prices as indicators of tightening supply.
In 12 key destination markets for Afghan heroin, the price of pure heroin nearly doubled between 2023 and 2024, increasing from around $250 to almost $500 per gram, while purity levels declined. The UNODC said these trends point to “serious disruptions in supply.”
The report also noted that heroin-related treatment admissions fell in 17 out of 19 countries reporting data for 2024, suggesting possible declines in heroin consumption in some markets.
UNODC said no country has yet been able to compensate for Afghanistan’s production collapse. While Myanmar became the world’s largest opium producer in 2023, producing more than 1,000 tons, the agency said that output remains far below Afghanistan’s former levels.
At the same time, the UN identified early signs that some cultivation may be shifting into neighboring countries. The area of eradicated poppy fields in India and Pakistan more than doubled from 5,868 hectares in 2022 to 13,200 hectares in 2023, according to the report.
The report said continued heroin and opium seizures inside Afghanistan and surrounding regions largely reflect the release of stored stockpiles rather than new production, but the volume of seizures has fallen to about half of pre-ban levels.
UNODC warned that a tighter heroin supply could accelerate a shift toward synthetic opioids such as fentanyl and nitazenes, which are cheaper to make, more potent, and do not depend on agricultural cultivation.
“This could reshape global illicit opioid markets, turning them away from opiates and towards synthetic opioids,” the report said.
The report also said Afghanistan remains an important source of methamphetamine, despite the Taliban’s narcotics ban. It noted that methamphetamine production in the region appears to have been less affected than opium production, partly because it can be manufactured more covertly and does not require poppy cultivation.
UNODC concluded that Afghanistan’s opium collapse, the expansion of synthetic opioids, and shifting trafficking routes are driving a broader transformation in global drug markets, with implications for law enforcement and public health worldwide.
