KABUL, AFGHANISTAN – The International Crisis Group has warned in a recent report that escalating clashes between the Taliban and Pakistan—particularly following the deadly attack near Kabul—have increased the risk of both sides entering a prolonged cycle of violence.
The report states that, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated significantly in recent weeks, raising concerns that the situation could develop into a prolonged and destructive conflict. The crisis entered a particularly dangerous phase following an airstrike on 16 March near Kabul, which Afghan Taliban authorities described as a “crime against humanity.”
They claimed that more than 400 civilians were killed and 265 others wounded, although these figures have not yet been independently verified. Pakistani officials rejected the allegations, stating that their forces carried out precise strikes targeting militant infrastructure, including ammunition depots and technical equipment, in multiple locations such as Kabul and Nangarhar.
Independent reports present a more cautious picture of the casualties. Some media outlets have confirmed over 100 deaths, while the United Nations reported at least 143 fatalities and warned that the number could rise. The primary site of the strike was Camp Phoenix on the outskirts of Kabul, a former NATO training and logistics base that was transferred to Afghan authorities in 2014. Part of the facility was later converted into a large drug rehabilitation center known as Omid camp, which provided both treatment and vocational training for thousands of patients. The center remained operational even after the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
The incident forms part of a broader cycle of retaliation that has intensified since late February. Just one day after the strike, Pakistan accused Afghan forces of launching a drone attack on Rawalpindi, home to the country’s military headquarters. Although both sides agreed to a temporary pause in hostilities during Eid al-Fitr, reportedly following mediation efforts by countries such as Qatar, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, the truce appears fragile, with both parties accusing each other of violations.
The roots of the current tensions trace back to developments after 2021, when the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan. Initially viewed by Islamabad as a potential ally, the Taliban government has since faced accusations from Pakistan of harboring militants from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for a surge in attacks within Pakistani territory. The TTP, which originated in the border regions, has re-emerged as a significant security threat after years of military pressure, carrying out increasingly frequent and deadly operations.
Pakistani authorities argue that the group benefits from safe havens across the border, a claim that Kabul denies.
The ongoing clashes have not only resulted in rising casualties but have also triggered serious humanitarian and economic consequences. Reports indicate that more than 100,000 people have been displaced due to the fighting, while Afghanistan’s already fragile economy has deteriorated further. Border closures, disrupted trade, and the forced return of migrants from neighboring countries have intensified the crisis. At the same time, Afghanistan continues to face one of the world’s largest humanitarian emergencies, with millions in need of urgent assistance.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is also dealing with internal economic and security pressures, and the conflict risks adding further strain.
Regional mediation efforts have so far failed to produce a lasting resolution. Talks held in 2025 with the support of Türkiye and Qatar ended without agreement, and previous ceasefires have collapsed quickly. Analysts warn that neither side is likely to achieve a decisive military victory. While Pakistan holds conventional military superiority, the Taliban have increasingly relied on asymmetric tactics, including drone warfare, to counterbalance that advantage.
In this context, continued escalation is unlikely to serve the interests of either country and instead risks deepening instability and increasing civilian suffering. Observers emphasize that a return to diplomatic engagement is urgently needed, supported by coordinated international mediation.
Despite deep mistrust, both countries face common security challenges, particularly the presence of militant groups operating along their porous border. Without meaningful dialogue and cooperation, the conflict could spiral further, with serious consequences for regional stability and civilian populations on both sides.
Pakistan and the Taliban, once allies, have clashed repeatedly along the border in recent months after Islamabad accused the Taliban of sheltering members of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) responsible for dozens of deadly attacks inside Pakistan. UN figures indicate at least 289 civilians were killed or injured in Pakistani airstrikes across several provinces since late February, before the Kabul strike.
On March 16, Pakistani airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation center in the eastern part of Kabul, killing at least 143 people according to the UN, while the Taliban reported 400 killed and 250 injured. UN agencies and rights groups have called for an independent investigation.
