KABUL, AFGHANISTAN – Afghanistan is sinking deeper into poverty as the United States and other major donors cut humanitarian aid, leaving millions vulnerable and compounding hardships under Taliban rule, the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned in a new report.
In the report, released on Thursday, the Crisis Group said sharp funding cuts since 2024 have strained basic services, hitting women and girls the hardest. An aid worker in Kabul warned, “Failure to plug gaping holes in basic services would seem like a recipe for disaster. A lot of people will die,” the group quoted.
According to the report, U.S. aid cuts under President Donald Trump ended Washington’s role as Afghanistan’s largest donor. European countries, meanwhile, have not stepped in to fill the gap, instead redirecting shrinking budgets toward limited emergency programs. This has left public health, education, and water systems exposed, with 96% of health funding and 44% of education support previously coming from foreign donors.
The aid cuts have already forced hundreds of health centers to close, depriving over three million Afghans of care. Maternal mortality is rising, with one Afghan woman dying every two hours from preventable pregnancy complications, the report said. “In 2025, almost 440,000 women are expected to lose access to sexual and reproductive health services that providers had managed to design to comply with Taliban edicts.”
The Crisis Group said the Taliban prioritizes self-sufficiency and security spending over social services, with nearly half of its budget going to military and intelligence structures, leaving little for health, education, and other essential services.
The group also highlighted the risk of “hidden tragedies” outside media view, as families cope by pulling girls from school, marrying off daughters early, or resorting to child labour and organ sales. “Many of the tragedies would be private affairs in the country’s most hard-up locales, endured behind the mud walls of houses far away from journalists,” the report said.
Beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, the Crisis Group warned that aid cuts could increase instability, migration, and terrorism, and added that financial pressures might also undermine the Taliban’s opium ban, potentially fueling drug trafficking.
Despite shrinking aid, remittances have emerged as a lifeline. According to the report, transfers through formal banking channels reached an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024—more than double the year’s humanitarian aid—providing some relief to struggling households.
The report also said the Taliban’s restrictive policies, particularly on women’s rights, have deepened Afghanistan’s isolation. The regime’s refusal to meet international conditions for inclusivity has discouraged foreign governments from considering broader engagement.
The Crisis Group urged European and regional states to slow the aid drawdown and explore ways to preserve basic services while negotiating with the Taliban on economic recovery. “US aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods.”
“The consequences of doing nothing to ease Afghan poverty may not be a televised famine or state collapse,” the group concluded. “But the suffering will remain widespread, private, and enduring.”
