KABUL –Latest UN projections indicate that up to 5.9 million undocumented Afghan migrants may return from Iran and Pakistan by the end of 2025, putting immense pressure on the country’s already fragile public services and infrastructure.
According to the Border Consortium’s July 21 report, an estimated 4.4 million could come from Iran and 1.5 million from Pakistan. Humanitarian agencies are ramping up emergency response and health preparedness to meet the needs of this growing influx.
World Health Organization (WHO) said that it is working to ensure that returnees, many of whom arrive in dire conditions, have timely access to life-saving medical support, vaccinations, and disease prevention measures at key border crossings and in host communities.
The urgency comes amid a sharp increase in the number of Afghans already returning to the country. Between April 10 and July 12, 2025, more than 1.18 million individuals crossed back into Afghanistan, primarily from Iran. The trend intensified in early July: in just 12 days (July 1–12), 348,064 people entered through five main border points—Islam Qala, Milak, Torkham, Spin Boldak, and Ghulam Khan.
Iran accounted for a striking 97.1% of returns during this period, with the western Islam Qala crossing alone receiving 245,285 individuals, or 70.4% of the total. The Milak crossing also saw a substantial uptick. In contrast, only 2.9% of returnees entered from Pakistan, with the Torkham crossing recording the lowest traffic—just 4,840 people, or 1.4% of the total.
To manage the health risks associated with the returnee surge, WHO has deployed mobile health teams and supported border health units with outpatient consultations, trauma care, and disease surveillance. The agency has also facilitated immunization campaigns, including polio vaccinations, and provided essential medicines and supplies.
WHO reports that the most common health issues identified among returnees include acute respiratory infections (ARI), acute watery diarrhea (AWD), scabies, and suspected COVID-19 cases. By detecting and responding to these conditions early, health teams aim to reduce the risk of larger outbreaks within already-vulnerable host communities.
This escalating crisis comes at a time when Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation is already among the worst globally, with more than 23 million people—over half the population—in need of humanitarian assistance in 2025, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Food insecurity, lack of access to healthcare, economic collapse, and climate-related shocks have further compounded the suffering of the population.
Despite repeated international calls for inclusive governance and effective crisis management, the Taliban authorities have struggled to deliver basic services, and there has been no clear strategy to absorb and support returnees. Aid organizations also report increasing bureaucratic restrictions, interference, and delays imposed by Taliban institutions, which are hindering humanitarian operations.
In addition to operational challenges, Afghanistan is facing a critical shortfall in international funding. The UN’s 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan for Afghanistan, which calls for $3.06 billion to assist 17.3 million people, remains severely underfunded—receiving less than 20 percent of its required budget as of July.
The significant rise in returns, particularly through Afghanistan’s western borders, underscores the need for sustained global engagement. Local systems in provinces like Herat are under growing strain, with limited resources to meet the basic needs of both returnees and existing residents.
As border closures, deportations, and legal pressures mount in neighboring countries, the return of Afghan migrants is expected to continue at a high rate.
Humanitarian actors warn that unless there is a comprehensive and coordinated response supported by renewed international funding and cooperation, Afghanistan will face severe public health challenges and a prolonged humanitarian emergency in the months ahead.
