Salma Alokozai
In August 2021, Afghanistan faced a dramatic and disheartening reversal of its progress as the Taliban regained control. This event not only altered the political landscape but also raised serious concerns about the sustainability of the country’s economic and social advancements achieved over the past two decades. This analysis, grounded in data from multiple international development agencies, aims to provide an objective yet critical overview of Afghanistan’s current situation compared to the early 2000s.
The country’s journey from 2001 to 2021 was marked by significant strides on both social and economic fronts. People saw improvements in key areas such as life expectancy, literacy rates, and GDP growth. Notably, the representation of women in parliament had shown promising progress, reflecting a broader commitment to gender equality and empowerment.
However, the resurgence of the Taliban regime poses a stark threat to these gains. The apprehension that the hard-earned progress in women’s rights and democratic governance might be undone is palpable. Economically, the uncertainty and instability following the Taliban’s return cast a long shadow over the future of Afghanistan’s economic development. The achievements in improving GDP, reducing unemployment, and managing inflation are now at risk of being eroded.
This situation is not merely a setback in numbers and statistics; it represents a significant loss of the aspirations and efforts of the Afghan people. The reversal of these economic and social gains is a source of deep concern and frustration for those committed to the nation’s development.
The recent political upheaval underscores the fragility of the progress the country made. It highlights the necessity of continuous international support and engagement to safeguard and build upon the achievements of the past two decades. The current situation is a critical reminder that development is an ongoing process, vulnerable to both internal and external forces.
This situation is not merely a setback in numbers and statistics; it represents a significant loss of the aspirations and efforts of the Afghan people.
Afghanistan’s human development trajectory from 1990 to 2021 is a narrative of considerable progress shadowed by enduring challenges. The improvement in the Human Development Index from 0.273 to 0.478 encapsulates significant progress, particularly in healthcare and education. The increase in life expectancy to 62 years is a notable achievement, reflecting advancements in medical infrastructure and public health policies. Concurrently, the increase in literacy rates to 37.27% in 2021 marks a major stride in educational development, albeit still lagging behind global standards.
Yet, all of these achievements are at risk under the Taliban. The Gender Disparity Index (GDI) of 0.681, revealing stark divergence in HDI values between females and males, has taken on a more concerning dimension under the current Taliban regime. The erosion of women’s rights and access to education under this regime dramatically highlights the fragility of the progress made in gender equality. The gender gap in education and economic opportunities is not just a matter of policy but also of fundamental human rights. While Afghanistan made commendable progress in human development, the recent restrictions on women’s education and freedoms represent a significant regression. Addressing these issues transcends economic instability; it is about preserving basic human dignity and rights, which are paramount for any sustainable development and societal progress.
In the broader economic scene, Afghanistan’s GDP was over $20 billion in 2020, a notable increase from $3.85 billion in 2002. This growth signifies an improvement in economic activities and an expansion of the country’s economic base, providing a backbone for access to rights and liberties. The per capita GDP also rose significantly, from $183.5 in 2002 to $663 in 2021 and $516 in 2020. However, this growth must be contextualized within the broader economic challenges, including inflation and population growth over two decades.
The unemployment rate, already a pressing issue, worsened in 2020, reaching 11.7 percent. The persistent and escalating job crisis has been a major driver for increased immigration from Afghanistan, as many seek better opportunities abroad. The challenging job market, combined with the political and economic uncertainty following the Taliban’s return to power, has further exacerbated the situation, leading to a more pronounced exodus of the workforce.
Afghanistan’s budget transparency and governance saw significant changes between 2001 and 2021. In the early 2000s, the country had limited mechanisms for public financial management and transparency. By 2021, there were efforts to improve budget transparency, though challenges persisted in ensuring effective implementation of these reforms. The Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms in Afghanistan, as measured by the PEFA framework, indicate a transparency score of 43 out of 100. This score, while showing some level of budgetary openness, falls short of the threshold (61) required to effectively support informed public debate on budget matters. Concerns arise regarding the sustainability of these PFM reforms under the Taliban de facto government. Given the regime’s historical governance approach, there is a risk that the progress made in budget transparency and public financial management could be reversed, potentially leading to decreased budgetary openness and limited public access to crucial financial information.
From 2001 to 2021, Afghanistan witnessed a significant inflow of Official Development Assistance (ODA), crucial for its post-conflict reconstruction and development. According to the World Bank, Afghanistan received approximately US$77 billion in ODA between 2001 and 2019, a substantial portion of which contributed to various development projects and humanitarian assistance across the country. This aid inflow, nevertheless, began to reduce with the drawdown of military forces from 2012 onward.
Similarly, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has dropped dramatically from an already low level. In 2021, the FDI net inflows was around $20.6 million compared to around $120 million in 2018. These figures are proof of the complex and challenging environment for foreign investments in Afghanistan during these years, marked by persistent security issues, political uncertainties, and economic challenges.
Access to rights and a life of dignity cannot materialize without access to opportunities for economic prosperity and a space where people can fulfill their potential.
With the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan’s future regarding the continuation and effectiveness of this aid is shrouded in uncertainty. The substantial aid that Afghanistan received played a critical role in its development, yet the current political landscape poses significant risks to the continuation of such support. The Taliban’s rule has led to reversals in development gains achieved through international aid, especially in areas like education, healthcare, and women’s rights, which had been primary beneficiaries of the ODA. The interplay of diminished external financial support and the marginalization of half the population from economic and educational spheres systematically and intentionally puts Afghanistan on the path to becoming the poorest and least developed country in the world. The international community’s response to the Taliban regime, coupled with the latter’s policies and governance approach, will significantly influence the trajectory of Afghanistan’s development and the utilization of any future aid.
The future of improvements made in socio-economic domains depends on multiple issues. One of the key factors, given the country’s historical reliance on foreign aid, is whether the outside world will be able to continue investing in education, health and economic development, given the multidimensional limitations posed by the idiosyncrasy of Taliban rule. Preserving the country’s socio-economic progress is imperative in building a democratic country in the future. Access to rights and a life of dignity cannot materialize without access to opportunities for economic prosperity and a space where people can fulfill their potential. Successfully investing in these endeavours by the outside world might be harder than it seems as it would require caution not to further empower the Taliban against the people of Afghanistan. There are already reports about the diversion of humanitarian aid by the regime and its ministry of finance has not published budgetary and other related fiscal information. Preserving mechanisms, institutions, and technical infrastructure that ensure fiscal transparency is an important area to focus on. Their full collapse means in any post-Taliban future, the country would have to invest again in rebuilding them from scratch. In the meantime, their dysfunctionality will also leave us with a big data gap in the future about the period under the Taliban rule, which could further complicate in any future reconstruction effort.
Salma Alokozai is an MA candidate in International Human Development at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
