COP28 is the first time the world has measured its progress in combating climate change since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Unless the talks in Dubai deliver a robust enough outcome, neither are we on track to limit global warming to 1.5 C nor will the advanced economies meet their pledge for $100 billion in annual climate financing for the developing world. Although parties finalized the operationalization of the long overdue Loss and Damage Fund announced in COP27 in Egypt, its capacity remains low. Thus far, less than half a billion have been committed, which is a fraction of what is needed. According to the UN, the 55 most vulnerable countries have lost more than $525 billion, one-fifth of their wealth, to climate crises in the last two decades.
Central Asia, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, is at COP28 with an effort to increase its bargaining power by presenting a collective position. The five countries in the region tried in the months running up to the conference to increase cooperation and communication to solidify a common agenda. It is the second time they have hosted the Central Asia Pavilion after they launched it at COP26 in Glasgow.
However, opportunities for Central Asia might lie on the sides of the conference as much as in the collective negotiation processes. In recent years, Central Asia has expanded its ties with the Gulf region and COP28 provides a unique opportunity to harness the partnership with the Gulf countries in combating climate change. Central Asia could potentially focus on several key issues on the side of the main events in Dubai. One is the opportunity to attract private investment and multilateral climate funding from the Gulf. COP28 also presents a unique opportunity for Central Asia to forge new partnerships with the Gulf countries on the transition to renewable energies. At least three economies in Central Asia are particularly reliant on fossil fuel to which the experience of the UAE and Saudi Arabia can be informing. The third important area is attracting technological know-how on managing climate change and water shortage, particularly desalination.
Climate Financing and Investment
Central Asia needs large sums of financial resources to avert climate change’s effects. By 2050, the effects of climate crises will amount to more than 1.3% of the region’s GDP. The full implementation of ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans cannot be financed from domestic sources alone. The region needs $38 billion annually by 2030 in order to effectively respond to threats of climate change—the aggregate demand of the developing world is estimated at over $300 billion. The Gulf countries can be a major source of investment in climate and energy areas. Central Asian efforts to appear as a coherent block in COP28 can help them build on previous regional engagement with the Gulf, especially the GCC + C5 July summit in Jeddah. While discussions about expanding bilateral ties have increased between the two regions, it is yet far from anywhere near the potential both regions hold for each other.
Gulf countries are rich in capital and have tried in recent years to diversify their economies in order to decrease reliance on revenues from fossil fuels. Central Asia can use COP28 to not only secure climate financing but also present investment opportunities that will help it manage climate change and the Gulf to diversify their investment portfolios. Earlier this year, the UAE pledged an unprecedented amount of nearly $5 billion to African countries in climate financing and carbon credits. The commitment is designed to attract even further investment from other development partners in Africa. That means that the intersection of political interest and financial means provides a unique opportunity for Central Asia to attract climate financing and investment from the Gulf. The region has struggled to secure resources from the West or international multilateral organizations. The Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, can provide an alternative and COP28 presents an ideal opportunity to have more tangible side negotiations.
Partnerships in Renewable Energies
Central Asia has some of the most energy-intensive economies and its aggregate energy demand is only increasing. According to estimates by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, the region would require an amount in excess of $300 billion by 2030 to adequately meet its energy needs. However, it has to transition to renewables in order to manage climate change and fulfill its economic potential. In so doing, the region could particularly learn from the experiences in the Gulf region in recent years. There are at least two key similarities between the political economy environments in both regions that could help the Gulf experience be useful for Central Asia. One is the political dynamics and governance systems. Although Central Asian states are not monarchical, they have been ruled by strongmen or powerful families for decades. In many instances, they have struggled to balance between socio-economic reforms and maintaining political power and authority. Two, much like the Gulf, Central Asian economies are heavily reliant on natural resources. At least in three countries, fossil fuel is the main economic backbone. Central Asian leaders might fear that moving away from fossil fuel could not happen without weakening their grip on power or their countries’ stability.
Opportunities for Central Asia might lie on the sides of the conference as much as in the collective negotiation processes.
This COP summit provides an opportunity for Central Asia to forge partnerships with the Gulf countries to transition to renewable energies. Saudi Arabia plans to procure half of its energy intake from renewable sources by 2030 and the UAE’s Masdar is the second largest investor in renewable energies worldwide. Compared to that, renewables comprise around 5% of Central Asia’s energy consumption, despite its massive potential to produce green energy. Luckily for Central Asia, it needs a shift in its energy investment rather than excessive extra expenditure to achieve net zero. The type of central and government-led planning that the Gulf has rolled out can be very informative as Central Asia tries to chart the future of renewables for itself. There is still one more week left in Dubai, which provides a unique opportunity for Central Asia to pitch projects and partnerships to investors in the Gulf in the development of renewable sources of energy with the expediency that Central Asia needs.
Technology to Address Water Shortages
Central Asia is facing increasingly dire water shortages. Nearly 30% of its glaciers have melted in the past 50 years. The Syr Darya and Amu Darya, two major sources of irrigation water and energy in the region are expected to lose more than 15% of their water by 2050. The construction of the Qosh Tape Canal by the Taliban in Afghanistan puts further stress on water sources in Central Asia as it is expected to divert nearly 20% of the water from the Amu Darya. Uzbekistan, for example, currently has a 3 billion cubic meters of water deficit which will increase to 7 billion by 2030 and 15 billion by 2050. Tajikistan, although using only less than 10% of its hydropower potential cannot provide sustainable and stable electricity for its own citizens. Farming and livestock in Kazakhstan have particularly been impacted by recent droughts. Tensions in the region over access to water are increasing on multiple fronts.
The Gulf region, on the other hand, has never had rich sources of ground or underground water. In efforts to have sustainable water supplies, the region has excelled in cooperative diplomacy and technological advancement. Desalination, the process through which seawater is purified of salts and minerals for drinking and other purposes, is one area of the Gulf that has an edge. Saudi Arabia, for example, is the largest producer of desalinated water. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have for years been trying to invest in desalinating water from the Caspian Sea to resolve their increasing water shortages. Although such technologies are accessible elsewhere too, Central Asia could forge partnerships with the Gulf to bring down costs and develop capacity with the needed speed and efficiency. The technology will become more important as some countries in the region such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan look to hydrogen as a source of energy, the production of which requires substantial amounts of water that could put extra pressure on clean water reserves.
Central Asia needs $38 billion annually by 2030 in order to effectively respond to threats of climate change—the aggregate demand of the developing world is estimated at over $300 billion.
There is only so much that Central Asia could achieve in Dubai. However, beginning more targeted talks with the Gulf on the sidelines of COP28 could yield results afterwards. The implications of the war in Ukraine on energy and food security provide a context of mutual interest for the Gulf and Central Asia to increase cooperation in these areas. The Gulf is heavily reliant on food imports and Central Asia is a major grain and energy exporter. One of the key sources of climate change in Central Asia is old transportation, industrial, and irrigation infrastructure that produce high methane emissions and use large sums of energy. COP28 already has seen a major declaration on methane emission reductions by fossil feul companies. Improvements in energy efficiency and infrastructure quality will not only equip the region better against climate shocks, they will also have a positive impact on its agriculture, grain and food production. Moreover, the recent increase in Western engagement with Central Asia gives Gulf countries more confidence and encouragement to invest in the region. Recent reports indicate that negotiators seriously entertain phasing out of unabated fossil fuels, which if successful, will only further incentivize the Gulf economies to diversify. Finally, the UAE is adamant about turning the COP28 into a major success in its efforts to become a larger global player. That means it will certainly have an interest in chipping in resources and political weight to incentivize other actors and stakeholders to invest and develop partnerships.
