KABUL — Security experts and diplomatic sources warn that the recent mass return of Afghan migrants from Pakistan and Iran may create fertile ground for recruitment by Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
Since January, around 2.6 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan under forced or voluntary circumstances, many after living abroad for decades or arriving for the first time.
UN agencies caution that returnees face severe shortages of jobs, housing, and basic services on top of severe Taliban restrictions. which could push some toward extremist groups. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) projects that up to 4 million Afghans may return by the end of 2025.
Hans-Jakob Schindler, former coordinator of the UN committee monitoring militant groups, told AFP that ISKP may view these newly arrived Afghans as a “potential recruitment pool.” The group, though weakened in some regions, continues periodic attacks in eastern Afghanistan and remains one of the main threats to both Taliban rule and regional stability.
A July UN report warned of a “permissive environment for a range of terrorist groups… posing a serious threat to the security of Central Asian and other countries.” ISKP is estimated to have roughly 2,000 fighters, and has carried out attacks in Pakistan, Iran, and Russia in recent years.
The Taliban regime, however, insists there are “no foreign terrorist groups operating” in Afghanistan, rejecting claims by member states and UN experts. Taliban spokespersons have called such reports “propagandistic.”
The economic collapse amplifies risk. According to the World Bank, more than half of Afghanistan’s population lives below the poverty line, unemployment among youth remains very high, and despite modest GDP growth, per-capita income has stagnated. Limits on women’s economic participation further inhibit recovery.
Women returnees are especially vulnerable. Many arrive without livelihoods or accommodations. UN agencies report growing risk of exploitation, early marriage, violence, and lack of access to health or education.
Security experts warn that unless reintegration, economic opportunity, and rule of law are strengthened rapidly, ISKP and other militant groups may exploit the discontent.
As one UN expert said, “the real challenge is still ahead” for Afghanistan’s returnees.
