KABUL, AFGHANISTAN – Roza Otunbayeva, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), told a special session of the UN Security Council on Monday that the ongoing war between Iran and Israel has already begun to affect Afghanistan’s economy and humanitarian conditions.
In her remarks, Otunbayeva said the conflict has disrupted trade routes critical to Afghanistan, leading to a noticeable increase in the prices of essential goods and fuel. She also noted that the regional instability has contributed to a rise in the number of Afghan migrants returning home, particularly from Iran, where economic uncertainty and border pressure have intensified in recent weeks.
Otunbayeva warned that without immediate de-escalation between Iran and Israel, the economic and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, which is already fragile, could deteriorate further.
“The current challenges are already serious enough and will worsen with further regional instability,” she told the Council.
Her comments come amid rising concern over the ripple effects of the Iran–Israel conflict across the region. Global oil markets have reacted to the tensions, with Brent crude prices rising over 11 percent in recent weeks.
According to a recent analysis by Citi, if the conflict disrupts Iran’s oil exports by 1.1 million barrels per day, oil prices could jump to $78 per barrel or higher. A prolonged disruption or closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90. Afghanistan, which imports much of its fuel through Iran and Pakistan, is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations.
Local sources in Kabul and Herat told KabulNow that the price of diesel and liquefied gas has already surged, in some cases by as much as 35 percent. In Kabul, the price of cooking gas rose from 48 to over 65 Afghanis per kilogram within days of the first missile exchanges between Iran and Israel. Similar trends have been reported in western provinces that rely heavily on trade via the Islam Qala and Milak border crossings.
Despite these developments, the Taliban’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce continues to deny that trade has been disrupted. Authorities maintain that land routes remain fully operational and that cross-border commerce is proceeding as normal. However, traders and local fuel distributors say customs delays and increased inspections at Iranian checkpoints have slowed the flow of goods, particularly fuel shipments.
In recent weeks, Iran has stepped up deportations of undocumented Afghan migrants, further increasing pressure on border provinces. Aid workers report that the number of returnees at crossing points in Nimruz and Herat has increased noticeably, with many arriving with little support or resources. Some families are reported to be returning preemptively due to fears of economic collapse or rising anti-migrant sentiment in Iranian cities.
