Photo: CSTO

The Region Grows Worried of Security Spillovers as Taliban Consolidates Power

The Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Imangali Tasmagambetov, expressed concern about the danger posed by the spread of terrorism, extremism, and the trafficking of drugs and weapons from Afghanistan toward the southern borders of CSTO member states.

Speaking at the 16th plenary session of the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly in Moscow on Tuesday, December 19, Tasmagambetov highlighted the significance of the Working Group on Afghanistan within the CSTO Council of Foreign Ministers in tackling the ongoing challenges arising from the situation in Afghanistan.

“As a result of the CSTO CSC session, the heads of states gave instructions to speed up and promptly complete work on the draft CSTO Special Interstate Policy for strengthening sections of the Tajik-Afghan Border,” he said.

Formed in 2002, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is an intergovernmental military alliance within the Eurasian region. Its membership comprises six post-Soviet states, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The organization has held several joint military exercises near the Afghanistan border in the past two years.

The Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan has heightened security concerns among its neighboring countries, including CSTO member states. These concerns stem from the potential resurgence of terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Jaish ul-Adl, and Jamaat Ansarullah, which pose a significant threat to regional stability.

In March, Tasmagambetov said that there is an increasing risk that terrorist groups and extremist ideas will infiltrate the territories of CSTO allies and the complex threats coming from Afghanistan are of particular concern. In February, the Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff, Colonel General Anatoly Sidorov claimed that the Islamic State – Khorasan province (ISKP) had amassed up to 6,500 members, with 4,000 located along Tajikistan’s southern borders in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan, Kunduz, and Takhar provinces.

In an interview with Russian News Agency, TASS, on Sunday, December 17, Russian Ambassador to Dushanbe, Semyon Grigoryev, said that the Taliban has not yet ensured the security of Afghanistan and Afghanistan-based extremist groups have repeatedly attempted to infiltrate Tajikistan over the past year.  “We do not see any particular progress in the Taliban’s fulfillment of its promises regarding the security of the states bordering Afghanistan. Throughout the year, extremists have attempted to infiltrate into Tajik territory through the Tajik-Afghan border. Fortunately, all of these attempts were promptly suppressed by the Tajik security forces,” he said.

The Russian ambassador also expressed concern about the substantial influx of Afghan refugees moving from Pakistan to northern Afghanistan, noting that it is changing the ethnic composition of the local population and inevitably leading to conflicts based on this ground. He also highlighted the possibility that terrorists may be among the migrants.

The concern from northern neighbors of Afghanistan coincided with similar security concerns from two other neighboring countries, Iran in the west, and Pakistan in the south and east. Both countries claim that the Taliban provides shelter to militant groups that pose security threats to them. Recently, the Iranian media outlet Jomhouri-e Eslami claimed that Jaish ul Adl, a militant group responsible for recent deadly attacks on Iranian soldiers, has a base in Afghanistan and receives logistical and political backing from the Taliban.

Pakistan, currently grappling with a surge in terrorist incidents, has consistently accused the Taliban of providing shelter to TTP militants responsible for carrying out attacks within the country. Pakistan claims that terrorist attacks in the country have increased by 60% since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan. The country’s authorities have repeatedly called on the Taliban to either act against terrorists using Afghanistan soil to attack Pakistan or hand them over to Islamabad.

The Taliban, however, has repeatedly denied the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan. The regime claims to have eliminated ISIS and that there is no threat from Afghanistan’s territory to any regional country. Taliban says that the neighboring countries should find their solution to tackling terror threats, as the Taliban is not responsible for the security failures of its neighbors.