On Wednesday, September 13, Zhao Xing, the new Chinese Ambassador presented his credentials to Hassan Akhund, the Taliban’s prime minister in Kabul. Since the group’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, this is the first time a country has sent a new permanent diplomatic representative to Kabul. The move further shows the growing irrelevance of the Western position to not recognize the Taliban regime. It also exemplifies China’s increasing role in Afghanistan, taking advantage of the void left by the U.S. and NATO’s hasty withdrawal.
For the past two years, much has been debated about ways the world could handle the crisis in Afghanistan. On the one hand, there is a humanitarian and economic crisis expanding with potential repercussions for the region and the world. The spillover effects of the disaster, primarily in the form of refugee outflux to neighboring countries and eventually to Europe, necessitate much of the Western world to try to ensure the economy remains minimally afloat. On the other hand, the country’s de facto rulers, the Taliban, continue to engage in an ever-expansive campaign of human rights violations, oppression of women and non-Pashtun ethnoreligious groups, and other democratic forces. The regime pays little heed to the priorities or demands of the outside world. While the Western world provides humanitarian aid through UN agencies and a weekly shipment of cash transfers, it has repeatedly said that recognition of the Taliban government remains out of question.
China’s decision to appoint a new ambassador in Kabul, however, shows that prospects of a full-fledged recognition of the Taliban regime by the West would make little practical difference. Incentivized by their national security interests including to prevent another refugee crisis, the US and its allies have sent billions of dollars to Afghanistan. These sums have prevented a humanitarian catastrophe and famine and by extension have created an environment almost ideal for the survival of the Taliban regime. The populace they try to control live neither well enough to demand their socio-political rights nor are they starving to have no option but to revolt. The region’s business-as-usual approach for the most part only further helps the group’s grip on power.
China isn’t alone in establishing normal diplomatic relationships with the Taliban. Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Uzbekistan have ambassadors in the country. India and the EU have diplomatic active missions although not at an ambassadorial level. Many in the former group have also handed over Afghanistan’s embassies to the Taliban and have accepted their diplomats. Therefore, having a UN seat or being recognized by the Western world, while might be desirable, would make little difference in the regime’s ruling of the country.
Western adversaries such as China and Russia who have found a friend in the Taliban for now take the most out of this situation. They contribute nearly nothing to humanitarian aid to the country and do not abide by any international standards of human rights that would bar them from working with the Taliban. As such, they have long resumed their diplomatic presence, work with the regime to advance their security interests, and invest in the country’s rich natural resources. China particularly has signed billions of dollars worth of mineral contracts, which if materialized would come with widely negative environmental and economic consequences as experiences elsewhere show. Huawei, the Chinese tech giant has promised to install CCTV cameras across Afghanistan, a capacity that would enable the regime in Kabul to prey on the people in more effective and efficient ways. This, of course, would also help Beijing keep an eye on volatile security dynamics in Afghanistan, particularly as it concerns regional militant groups adversarial to China.
