WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES – The US Intelligence Community says that the near-term prospect of significant resistance against the Taliban remains low, with many Afghans weary of war and fearful of potential Taliban retaliation.
In its annual assessment published on Monday, March 11, the collective of US intelligence agencies said that the Taliban has strengthened its power in Afghanistan by suppressing opposition groups and bolstering its international engagement.
Comprising 18 US organizations, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the US Intelligence Community operates both separately and collectively to conduct intelligence activities that support the national security interests of the US.
The assessment shows that armed anti-Taliban groups lack strong leadership and external support.
The outside world has almost unanimously shown disinterest in working with and supporting any armed resistance to the Taliban regime, which many think has in return contributed not only to lower military capabilities of such groups but also their disunity.
Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, many oppositions armed groups were formed, with a few still fighting the Taliban in various provinces. The Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) and the National Resistance Front (NRF) have been particularly active in challenging the Taliban, primarily in capital Kabul and the northern part of the country.
They are yet to pose any substantial threat to the regime’s grip on power. The main insurgency, the National Resistance Front (NRF), which initially put a fierce opposition to the Taliban in the Panjshir valley, has weakened militarily and its leadership entangled in ethnic politics.
In his quarterly report issued earlier this month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that armed anti-Taliban groups, particularly the AFF, persisted in their campaign of assassinations and small-scale attacks against Taliban forces, conducting at least 24 confirmed attacks between November 1, 2023, and January 10, 2024.
However, the report highlights that ISIS-K is attempting to undermine the legitimacy of the Taliban regime by intensifying attacks against foreign interests in Afghanistan.
While the Taliban denies the presence of international terrorist groups in Afghanistan, the international community and regional actors express concern about the existence of such groups, including Al-Qaeda, ISIS-K, and the TTP in the country.
Earlier this week, General Michael E. Kurilla, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief, criticized the Taliban for harboring extremist groups in Afghanistan, warning that the presence of these groups in the country could destabilize the region.
The top US general elaborated that extremist groups “exploit Afghanistan’s poor economic conditions and lax governance to recruit, train, and sustain an expanding cadre of fighters.”
In a report last month, the member states of the UN Security Council said that terrorist groups in Afghanistan enjoy greater freedom than ever before in recent history. The report also claimed that there are no recent indications that the Kabul regime has taken measures to restrict the activities of these terrorist groups within the country.
The US Intelligence Community says that regional powers will continue to focus largely on keeping problems contained in Afghanistan and seek to develop transactional arrangements with the regime in Afghanistan while proceeding cautiously with Taliban requests for formal recognition.
