The world is on track for a temperature rise of 2.5 to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century, according to the latest Emissions Gap Report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in November 2023. This is far higher than the limit of 1.5 to 2°C that scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
The report titled “Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)”, released just days ahead of the UN climate change summit in the United Arab Emirates underscores the crucial need for countries to adopt more ambitious emission reduction targets and implement urgent and equitable climate action plans.
The report found that 86 days in the first nine months of the year had temperatures 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest month on record, with global average temperatures 1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels.
In December 2015, an international treaty on climate change, known as the Paris Agreement, was adopted by 195 parties (194 States plus the European Union) at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France. The overarching objective of this agreement is to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a concerted effort to further restrict it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
UN chief António Guterres has said that keeping the Paris goal of limiting the rise to ideally 1.5C and well below 2°C would require “tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels.” and “Otherwise, we’re simply inflating the lifeboats while breaking the oars,” he added.
According to the report, even if all countries implement their carbon emission reduction plans as currently pledged under the Paris Agreement, global temperatures will still increase by 2.9°C (5.2°F). If countries fulfill their net-zero carbon emission goals in the coming decades, global temperatures are still projected to rise by 2.5°C (4.5°F). “Even in the most optimistic scenario considered in this report, the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is only 14 percent, and the various scenarios leave open a large possibility that global warming exceeds 2°C or even 3°C,” the report noted.
The report also highlighted that different countries have contributed to global warming to varying degrees over time. For instance, the US, with just 4% of the world’s population, bears responsibility for 17% of global warming since 1850. “India, by contrast, accounts for 18% of the world population, but to date only contributed to 5% of warming.”
“Globally, the 10% of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48%) of emissions with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries. The bottom 50% of the world population contributed only 12% of total emissions,” the report read.
According to the report, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from G20 countries increased by 1.2% in 2022. This upward trend was driven by increases in emissions from China, India, Indonesia, and the United States of America. However, other G20 countries, such as Brazil, the European Union, and Russia, experienced decreases in emissions. Collectively, the G20 accounts for 76% of global emissions.
Energy production was the primary source of emissions in 2022, accounting for 20.9 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) or 36% of total emissions. The report attributes this primarily to combustion emissions in the power sector (14.8 GtCO2e) and emissions from fossil fuel production.
The UN is looking for three key commitments from nations at the upcoming climate change summit, including a tripling of renewable energy capacity, the doubling of energy efficiency and bringing clean power to all by 2030, and financial assistance for loss and damage to supporting vulnerable countries in adapting to the impact of climate change.
